There is an old saying in the stock market:「Technical indicators are ever-changing, and trading volume is the real deal.」 It can be said that the size of the trading volume directly shows the ultimate degree of recognition of the market's technical form at a certain moment by both parties in the market. Below, the author makes some analysis on two more typical situations.
This refers to the sudden emergence of a continuous mild heavy volume pattern similar to a "Yamagata" after the trading volume of individual stocks continued to fall in the previous period. This heavy volume pattern is also called a "volume pile". The phenomenon of "quantity piles" at the bottom of individual stocks can generally prove that there are strong funds involved. But this does not mean that investors can immediately intervene. Generally, after a moderate increase in stock prices at the bottom, the stock price will rise with the volume, and the stock price will be adjusted appropriately when the volume shrinks. There is no fixed time pattern for this type of adjustment, ranging from a dozen days to several months. Therefore, investors must buy on dips in batches at this time, and when the reasons for buying are not proven wrong, there are Patience is enough to wait. It should be noted that when the stock price rises moderately, the adjustment range should not be lower than the low point of the previous period, because if the adjustment is lower than the cost area of the main position, at least it shows that the market is still under strong selling pressure and the market outlook may be adjusted. The sex is greater.
The research and judgment of this trend should be treated in several different situations. Generally speaking, putting a huge amount in the process of rising usually indicates that the power of many parties is exhausted, and it will be difficult for the market outlook to continue to rise. The huge amount in the decline is generally the last concentrated release of the short side's power. The possibility of a deep decline in the market outlook is very small, and a short-term rebound may be in sight. Another situation is to increase the volume against the market, and increase the volume when the market is empty, which has caused a very eye-catching effect. Such individual stocks often have only one or two days of market conditions, and then accelerated their decline, which has trapped many investors who followed up on the day of heavy volume upswing.
One more thing everyone should pay attention to is that when the main funds are being raised, the transaction volume does not necessarily have to be large, as long as there is enough patience, it is enough to consolidate at the bottom for a period of time. When the main force is about to ship, because there are too many chips in hand, it has to find ways to set up various traps. Therefore, we should comprehensively investigate the long-term trajectory of the stock, understand the relationship between its price, volume and energy level and its fundamentals, find out the main activity law and the market outlook potential of individual stocks, and determine us through comprehensive analysis Timing of intervention or shipment.
Although there are hundreds of indicators for technical analysis, in the final analysis, the most basic is nothing more than price and volume, and other indicators are nothing more than variations or extensions of these two indicators. Everyone knows that the basic principle of the volume-price relationship is "volume is the cause, price is the effect; volume is first, price is second", that is to say, trading volume is the internal driving force of stock price changes, and people derived a variety of volume-price relationships. Rules are used to refer to people's specific investments. However, in practice, people will find that errors often occur when specific stocks are traded based on the relationship between volume and price. Especially in judging the main shipment and washing based on the transaction volume, the error rate is higher. It is not a mistake to use washing as a shipment. , Selling too early, and thus losing a good profit opportunity, is to mistake the shipment as a dishwashing and failing to sell it. As a result, it is a lost opportunity to ship. Then, in actual investment, how to correctly judge the direction of the main force's entry and exit based on the change in transaction volume, or how to accurately determine whether the main force is shipping or washing the market based on the change in transaction volume?
Generally speaking, when the main force is not ready to raise the stock price, the performance of the stock price is often dull, and the change in trading volume is also small. At this time, it is of no practical significance to study the trading volume, and it is difficult to determine the main force's intention. However, once the main force increases the stock price, the whereabouts of the main force will be exposed. We call such stocks strong stocks. At this time, it is of very important practical significance to study the changes in trading volume. At this time, if we can accurately Capturing the main signs of washing the plate and intervening decisively can often obtain very ideal benefits in a relatively short period of time. Practice has proved that according to the following characteristics of changes in trading volume, a more accurate judgment can be made on whether the main force of strong stocks is washing the market:
● Due to the active intervention of the main force,the originally dull stocks became active due to the obvious increase in trading volume, and there was a trend of price increase and increase in volume. Then, in order to clear the obstacles for a large increase in the future, the main force had to forcibly wash away the short-term profit. This washing behavior is shown as a sideways shock of Yin and Yang on the K-line chart. At the same time, because the main purpose is to General investors are out, therefore, the K-line pattern of stock prices often becomes an obvious "head shape."
● In the main washing stage, the K-line combination often has a constant overcast, and the number of overcasts is large, and each time it is closed, there is a huge transaction volume. It seems that the main force is shipping on a large scale. In fact, it is not. You will find at a glance that when the above huge amount of overcast occurs, the stock price rarely falls below the 10-day moving average. The short-term moving average constitutes a strong support for the stock price. The signs of the main low-covering are clear at a glance. This is what the technical people say "The price of a huge amount of Changyin will not fall, and the main washing plate must rise."
● During the main wash, the OBV and the average volume line, which are the main indicators for studying and judging the change in trading volume, will also have some obvious characteristics, mainly as follows: when the above large amount of huge volume occurs, the average volume of the stock price on the 5th and 10th The line keeps running upwards, indicating that the main force has been Masukura, stock trading is active, and the market outlook is promising. In addition, OBV, a quantitative indicator of trading volume, always keeps going up during the period of high stock price fluctuations. Even if it drops instantly, it will quickly rise and be able to hit a new high in the near future. This shows that from the perspective of volume and energy alone, the stock price has reached a significant level. Conditions for rising.